image: The devastating aftermath of Cyclone Freddy, which hit the region Feb-Mar 2023. It was unprecedented in terms of its persistence and led to hundreds of deaths. view more
Credit: Maynard Nyirenda: SDI and DODMA
The Wits Global Change Institute (GCI) co-leads a new international R110 million project aimed at limiting the devastating impact of tropical cyclones in southern Africa and Madagascar.
The project, called Resilience and Preparedness to Tropical Cyclones across Southern Africa (REPRESA), will focus on addressing the impacts of tropical cyclones in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique in a changing climate, but the work will also have wider implications.
As part of the Climate Adaptation and Resilience (CLARE) research initiative, experts at the Global Change Institute of the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa will co-lead REPRESA with the University of Bristol in the UK, and Eduardo Mondlane University in Mozambique.
The first-of-its-kind project comprises an interdisciplinary team of leading social and physical scientists, national and international hydrological and meteorological services, and practitioners to tackle the pressing challenges posed by tropical cyclones in the region.
The team recognises the importance of significantly improving the uptake of forecast products in vulnerable communities. As result, the research process will co-develop and enhance anticipatory governance structures for flood and tropical cyclone risk management in local communities. This includes early warning dissemination and scenario-based community-specific action plans.
“Recent years have seen unprecedented impacts from landfalling tropical cyclones in southern Africa. More than 1,300 people have died in the path of tropical cyclone Idai in March 2019 – the worst flood disaster in the history of Africa south of the equator,” says Francois Engelbrecht, Professor of Climatology at the University of Witwatersrand, and Director of the GCI.
"We need to better understand how climate change has been changing, and will increasingly change, tropical cyclone impacts in southern Africa and Madagascar. As an immediate response, we need improved Early Warning Systems, and improved uptake of these warnings, in this part of the world. At the same time, southern African countries and Madagascar need to develop more robust climate change adaptation strategies to prepare for increasing impacts from tropical cyclones over the next few decades.”
Lizzie Kendon, Professor of Climate Science at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment, says that while southern Africa is hugely vulnerable to the devasting impacts of tropical cyclones, as demonstrated recently by Cyclone Freddy, where hundreds of people lost their lives, we know very little about how tropical cyclones are changing in the region under a warming climate.
“In REPRESA we will bring together state-of-the-art climate and flood modelling to make a real difference to people’s lives in some of the most vulnerable communities, including women and children displaced by conflict.
“This is a true north-south partnership, that I am honoured to co-lead. Collectively we will improve early warning systems and their uptake and increase resilience to tropical cyclones in the longer term.”
The project is part of the first group of projects under CLARE, a UK-Canada framework research programme on Climate Adaptation and Resilience, aiming to enable socially inclusive and sustainable action to build resilience to climate change and natural hazards. Primarily funded by UK aid from the UK government along with the International Development Research Centre, Canada. REPRESA will run from June 2023 until the end of 2026.
Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to the destructive forces of tropical cyclones, as evidenced by the catastrophic Tropical Cyclones Idai in 2019 and Freddy in 2023. The existing early warning systems in the region, and/or the uptake of the warnings issued, are inadequate to prevent loss of life and economic hardship. REPRESA aims to fill this gap by improving early warning systems as well as conducting comprehensive research on how cyclone risks will evolve in a changing climate, and formulating adaptation options that enhance resilience in the face of these risks.
REPRESA will also foster equitable partnerships and collaboration with various stakeholders, including universities, hydrometeorological services, Red Cross organisations, development institutes and relevant practitioner and national and local government bodies. The project will harness the expertise of researchers, practitioners and in-country partners and ensure their knowledge is integrated effectively.
The outcomes of the REPRESA project will have far-reaching impacts, both within the focus countries and in developing research findings on building resilience and developing adaptation options to complex climate risks in vulnerable communities more widely. This will include improved uptake of early warning systems in vulnerable communities, strengthened humanitarian operations through anticipatory action, and enhanced climate adaptation planning at multiple levels.
Quotes from the project team
Prof. Francois Engelbrecht, project co-PI of the University of the Witwatersrand said that “Recent years have seen unprecedented impacts from landfalling tropical cyclones in southern Africa. More than 1300 people have died in the path of tropical cyclone Idai – the worst flood disaster in the history of Africa south of the equator. We need to better understand how climate change has been changing, and will increasingly change, tropical cyclone impacts in southern Africa and Madagascar. As an immediate response, we need improved Early Warning Systems, and improved uptake of these warnings, in this part of the world. At the same time, southern African countries and Madagascar need to develop more robust climate change adaptation strategies to prepare for increasing impacts from tropical cyclones over the next few decades.”
Prof. Elizabeth Kendon, project co-PI of the University of Bristol said that “Southern Africa is hugely vulnerable to the devasting impacts of tropical cyclones, as demonstrated recently by Cyclone Freddy – where hundreds of people lost their lives – and yet we know very little about how tropical cyclones are changing in the region under a warming climate. In REPRESA we will bring together state-of-the-art climate and flood modelling to make a real difference to people’s lives in some of the most vulnerable communities, including women and children displaced by conflict. This is a true north-south partnership, that I am honoured to co-lead. Collectively we will improve early warning systems and their uptake, and increase resilience to tropical cyclones in the longer term.”
Dr. Liz Stephens, project partner of the Red Cross Climate Centre said “The Climate Centre is excited to play such a strong role in this project, building bridges between the Red Cross Red Crescent, academic research and national hydrometeorological agencies to improve humanitarians' capacity to prepare for and respond to the devastating impacts of tropical cyclones in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique."
About REPRESA:
REPRESA aims to establish a new nexus of excellence in impact-based early warnings and climate change projection analysis, leading to improved resilience and preparedness to tropical cyclones across southern Africa. It is co-led by the University of Bristol, Wits Global Change Institute and Eduardo Mondlane University.
This ground-breaking initiative will advance the understanding and response to changing tropical cyclone risks in southern Africa and Madagascar. The project brings together African and international climate modelling capabilities, including at the University of the Witwatersrand, the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the University of Reading and National Hydro-Meteorological Services of Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique.
It will also strengthen existing frameworks for disseminating early warning system information to communities and improve humanitarian programming and adaptation planning, in the context of changing climate risks, through Living Labs led by the Red Cross Climate Centre and anticipatory governance research led by North West University in South Africa.
This co-designed research, in a learning-through-doing transdisciplinary approach aims will drive climate adaptation, risk reduction, and community resilience in the region.
About CLARE
CLimate Adaptation and REsilience (CLARE) is a £110m, UK-Canada framework research programme on climate adaptation and resilience, aiming to enable socially inclusive and sustainable action to build resilience to climate change and natural hazards. CLARE is an initiative jointly designed and run by the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office and Canada’s International Development Research Centre. CLARE is primarily funded by UK aid from the UK government, along with the International Development Research Centre, Canada.
Research supported by CLARE is bridging critical gaps between science and action: developing new tools and supporting partner governments, communities, and the private sector to use evidence and innovation to drive effective solutions to the climate challenge, whilst building capacity of both those carrying out the research and those using the resulting evidence.
We invite you to learn more about the CLARE initiative and projects, including REPRESA, by visiting the following link: CLARE - CLimate Adaptation & REsilience (clareprogramme.org)
University of Witwatersrand
The University of the Witwatersrand (aka Wits University) is renowned for its academic and research excellence, its commitment to social justice, and the advancement of the public good, for over 100 years. It is one of the leading institutions on the African continent that produces world-class research that is locally relevant and globally competitive.
Along with its various strategic partners, Wits is committed to solving global challenges such as global change, climate change and sustainability in a multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary manner, from its vantage point in the global south. Wits’ research output has increased by over 45% in the last four years with more than 85% of its research published in international journals. Wits offers a free space for the exchange of ideas and a vibrant intellectual community that fosters debate and knowledge transfer both within and beyond its lecture halls. Wits celebrated its Centenary in 2022 and received support from its alumnae and friends for priority areas such as research, teaching, learning and infrastructure. To date the University has raised R3,1 billion with a target of R3,2 billion for 2023. Read about Wits’ centenary celebrations and follow the latest Wits research.
Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
The Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM) is a public institution, the oldest of higher education in Mozambique. It was founded on August 21, 1962, and rose to the category of University in 1968, when it became known as University of Lourenço Marques. In May 1976, President Samora Moises Machel assigned the institution the name of Eduardo Mondlane University, named after the relevant historical role played by Dr. Eduardo Mondlane Chivambo, the first president of the Mozambican liberation movement (FRELIMO).
With an annual intake of about 4 thousand students spread over 11 faculties and 6 graduate schools, UEM aims to be become a national, regional and international reference in the production and dissemination of scientific knowledge as well as innovation, highlighting research as the foundation of teaching and learning processes, extension and outreach activities.
University of Bristol
The University of Bristol is at the cutting edge of global research. We have made innovations in areas ranging from cot death prevention to nanotechnology. The University has had a reputation for innovation since its founding in 1876. Our research tackles some of the world’s most pressing issues in areas as diverse as infection and immunity, human rights, climate change, and cryptography and information security. Bristol currently has 40 Fellows of the Royal Society and 13 of the British Academy – a remarkable achievement for a relatively small institution.
The University of Bristol aims to bring together the best minds in individual fields, and encourage researchers from different disciplines and institutions to work together to find lasting solutions to society’s pressing problems. We are involved in numerous international research collaborations and integrate practical experience in our curriculum, so that students work on real-life projects in partnership with business, government and community sectors.
Co-Principal Investigators
Prof. Francois Engelbrecht
Francois Engelbrecht is Distinguished Professor of Climatology and Director of the Global Change Institute of the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. He specialises in climate model development and the simulation of climate variability and change in Africa and the Southern Hemisphere. Engelbrecht has established extensive regional climate modelling capabilities in South Africa, and leads the development of an African-based Earth System Model. He served as an invited Lead Author of the IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ºC (2018) as well as of the Assessment Report Six Working Group I report (2021). Currently serves as co-chair of the Scientific Steering Group of CLIVAR of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), co-chair of the Joint Expert Team on Earth System Implementation of the World Meteorological Organisation and as elected President of the South African Society of Atmospheric Sciences.
Prof. Luis Artur
Luis Artur is a renowned social scientist who specializes in community-based disaster risk reduction and adaptation within Mozambique's most vulnerable communities. Currently, he holds the position of lecturer and researcher at Eduardo Mondlane University in Maputo, Mozambique. His research primarily delves into the interconnectedness of climate change, natural hazards, conflict, displacements, and access to land. Within the field of disasters, his primary focus lies in the dynamics between various actors involved in disaster response and the local strategies implemented to combat climate change.
Prof. Lizzie Kendon
Lizzie Kendon is Strategic Head of Understanding Climate Change at the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK and Professor of Climate Science at Bristol University. She leads a team of 30 climate scientists working on understanding climate change with a view to improving climate projections. She has pioneered the field of km-scale climate modelling, with high-profile publications in Nature Climate Change (Kendon et al 2014) and Nature Comms. (Kendon et al 2019, Kendon et al 2023). This has included running the first km-scale climate simulations over the UK, Europe and Africa. Her research to date has focussed on gaining a better understanding of extreme rainfall processes and their future change.